BACKTESTS FOR PEOPLE WHO WANT THE TRUTH

Describe your trading idea. Find out if it would have made money.

Write it in plain English. We test it against up to 6 years of real crypto prices (since 2020), after fees, and send you a straight answer within 48 hours. Most ideas fail. We'll tell you if yours does.

Test my idea · $19

Full refund if we can't test it properly.

SAMPLE REPORTNo. 0045

THE IDEA

“When Bitcoin or Ether stretches far from its recent average, bet on it snapping back.”

Coins tested: BTC, ETH
Period: 2020–2025, 5½ years
Result after fees: +51%, barely
Profit factor: 1.02
Profitable years: 3 of 6
Worst fall from a high: 66%

WHY

Its latest year looked great. Over six years it barely beat its fees, lost money in three of them, and at one point fell 66%. A good year isn't an edge.

A real idea from our own research. It failed.

HOW IT WORKS

You send

Your idea, in your own words. "Buy Bitcoin when it drops 10% in a day and sell a week later" is plenty.
Anything you care about: which coins, how long to hold, how much risk.
$19.

You get back, within 48 hours

Whether it made money after trading fees and funding costs.
The worst losing stretch, in plain numbers.
Whether it worked across different coins and in each year since 2020, or only got lucky once.
A plain explanation of why, and what we'd try next.

THE HONEST PART

0 in 46

That's how many of our own ideas passed every check.

We've tested 46 of our own strategies with the same checks we'll run on yours. None has passed them all. Our best made money in each of six years, but fell too far along the way. Most trading ideas look great until you add fees, test more than one coin, or check a different year. We'd rather tell you that before you risk real money.

IDEAS WE'VE TESTED

Written the way you'd write yours. Three of the 46, with what we found.

“Watch pairs of coins that usually move together. When the gap between them stretches unusually wide, buy the cheap one and short the expensive one. Close when the gap is back to normal.”
Does not pass
The gaps did close, but fees ate the profit. Profit factor 0.99.
“Check ETH's weekly trend. Go long when it turns up, step aside when it turns down.”
Does not pass
Worked on ETH. Failed on BTC and on a 10-coin basket, so probably luck.
“Every week, buy the strongest coins and short the weakest. Rebalance weekly.”
Does not pass
Most of the profit was funding payments, with a 43% drop along the way.

WHAT WE CHECK

Check	What it means
After fees	Every trade pays realistic exchange fees and funding.
No hindsight	Coins are picked as they were on each date, not today's winners.
More than one coin	An idea that only works on one coin is usually luck.
Every year	We show each year since 2020 on its own, so one lucky year can't hide the bad ones.
Worst stretch	How far it fell from its high before recovering.

WHAT THIS ISN'T

Not signals. Not advice. Not a guarantee. A backtest shows what would have happened in the past, and the future can be different. We test crypto ideas only, on historical prices from major exchanges: Binance before 2023, Hyperliquid since.

QUESTIONS

What if my idea is vague?

That's normal. We'll make sensible choices, tell you exactly what we assumed, and test it.

What if it fails?

Most do, and that's worth knowing before you put money in. You still get the full numbers, which check it missed and by how much, and what we'd try next. A fail means it didn't meet our standards, not that you can't trade it. It's your idea and your decision; you'll just make it with the facts in front of you.

What if it passes?

You'll get the numbers and our honest view of how much to trust them. A pass is a reason to keep testing, not to bet the house.

Do you keep my idea?

Yes. We keep a copy of every idea we test and may use what we learn from it in our own research.

Can I get a refund?

Yes, in full, if we can't test your idea properly.

Find out before the market tells you.

Test my idea · $19